No Nerds Overview of the Massive Energy Transition of the 2020’s (Copy)
Everything, everywhere, all at once.
That’s not just a movie, it’s a description of the energy transition that is underway. We are undergoing a massive shift to EVs, renewables and battery storage across our economy and across the world. Get ready to start seeing it everywhere. It’s gathering speed every day as the costs of these new tools drop below the costs of their fossil fuel predecessors. For example, renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels in 90% of the world. There is a lot of change coming. Fast. And, that’s a good thing.
We have all the tools we need today to dramatically reduce our global green house gas emissions on the way to zero emissions by 2050. Consider that this last summer was the likely the coolest one that you’ll experience for the rest of your life. Sheesh. There really isn’t a good alternative to doing all that we can as quickly as possible. By pushing hard on speeding up the energy transition we can preserve more of this world that we love in our own lifetimes as well as for future generations.
The Inflation Reduction Act in a Nutshell
Just recently, the US passed its most significant climate legislation EVER. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed in August of 2022 will serve as an essential catalyst for the energy transition in the US and will also have positive effects in the rest of the world as well. In a nutshell, the goal is to cut our fossil fuel emissions by 50% by 2030 and put us on a path to net zero emissions by 2050. It means the federal government is:
accelerating the industrial production of key machines (think of EVs, solar panels, heat pumps, induction stoves, and home batteries). This will create lots of jobs.
subsidizing the costs of consumers buying those same products as they electrify their homes and vehicles,
and ramping up large scale solar and wind energy and moving it around the country via a renewed and expanded grid.
AND, if we do all of this we’ll also see why its named the INFLATION REDUCTION Act as fossil fuels are a major driver of inflation. If we reduce their role, we reduce inflation.
All of this is paid for by an increase to the minimum corporate tax rate and by restoring the workforce at the IRS to enforce the rules.
Nifty right? It’s a huge win and households need to take full advantage of its benefits. There is a lot more about ramping up innovation for the hard to transition portions of the economy and getting utilities on board for retiring fossil fuel plants with coal plants going first and later fossil gas plants, etc., etc., but since this is a “no nerds” guide, I’m staying quiet about those pieces. ; )
Construction Ahead
This means that there will be a lot of new factories, new jobs, and lots on construction. Since the IRA was signed, many new factories have been announced for EVs and battery production. Have you seen them? Very exciting! While our national “construction muscles” have gotten a little weak in recent decades, we know how to do this at the scale we need.
We did it with rural electrification in the 30’s.
We did it with the rapid and enormous ramp up to supply all the tanks, planes, boats and ammunition needed to win WWII.
We did it when we built the interstate highway system in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s.
We have done this before, so we can do it again. Buckle up!
Calling all YIMBY’S
All this construction will go somewhere. But where? The environmental movement has long focused on calling for change and stopping bad things from happening…and now the change is here and it’s time to make a switch. Instead of “not in my backyard” (NIMBY), we need a groundswell of YIMBYs (“yes in my backyard”) to support the placement of new and improved transmission lines, wind turbines, factories, and solar installations. These days NIMBY’s might oppose a renewable installation because it ruins a treasured view or it looks “ugly” on the roof. This is foolhardy and we can’t afford at this late stage in our climate fight. It’s true that I’ve never seen a pretty road or lovely overhead wires. It’s also true that 99.9% of the time I don’t “see” them. We get used to the “everyday ugly” of many things that we rely one. I deeply appreciate that I’m not bumping over ruts on the bare ground when I drive and electricity is an essential part my life. I’m not calling for roads and wires to be ripped out because they mar my view. Our electric future will take up 1/8 of the space that our current reliance on oil wells, refineries, pipelines, and coal mines do, and our air will be cleaner than it has ever been since the industrial revolution took hold.
The Regrettable Tale of Cape Wind…
Here in Massachusetts, the Cape Wind project, which would have supplied 79% of the all the power needed for the Cape and Islands, was slated to come online in 2004 and was famously delayed and finally killed in 2014 in no small part so that the Kennedy and Koch families could enjoy their coastal views of Nantucket Sound from their vacation homes. (Heavy sigh. Head shaking.) If the first off shore US wind project had turned on in 2004 we would have avoided 79% of the emissions of the Cape and Islands for nearly 20 years now and it would have surely accelerated the next project and the one after that. Instead, the first offshore wind project in the US actually opened off the coast of Rhode Island in 2016 (Note: the first offshore wind project in Europe was in 1991.) We can’t afford this NIMBY obstruction and delay given Mother Nature’s timeline.
Saying Yes to New Options
And, I’d say there’s a moral demand to be a YIMBY too. Much of the fossil fuel infrastructure that we already have and the pollution it generates sits heaviest on poorer, browner communities and tribes. We can’t repeat that dishonorable pattern of environmental racism. If these new pieces of green infrastructure are not placed and built, the alternative is that we keep spilling oil in someone else’s waterways, removing someone else’s mountain top, frack the land under someone else’s farm, and keep pulling oil out of the ground nearby to someone else’s kid’s school.
The faster the energy transition moves, the quicker the clean air benefits will rack up for these communities as well. Air pollution is a big deal -10 million people dying prematurely from air pollution each year around the world, and in the US, it’s over 300,000 people. From a public health perspective, the clean air benefits alone justify the cost and effort of the energy transition, much less the climate benefits. I think that’s worth fighting for too!
Count me for a YIMBY in the energy transition. Join me?
